Briefly breaking up the fall feel

I hope you had a chance to enjoy the great weather yesterday… we hiked Highbanks Metro Park in the morning.

Not pictured: Our 7-year-old who lost a tooth while we were out for breakfast not long beforehand.

The 614cast

Today’s tl;dr

^☀️ Mainly sunny, high in the lower 80s.

Forecast highlights

🌅 A little summer, then more fall

We’ve topped out around 80 the past couple of days, and we should do it again the next two. You’ll also notice the morning lows come up some, too, as a bit of moisture returns to Ohio.

But then things cool off again.

Thursday’s high probably won’t happen until closer to evening as skies gradually clear following the rain earlier in the day. After a little upward tick on Friday, temperatures drop again for next weekend after another cold front passes through.

Odds favor below-average temperatures into at least early next week. There’s some question about how much we rebound thereafter… but that’s a ways off.

🎯 Zeroing in on the rain

Right up front, the model trend for the timing of the majority of the rain is coalescing around late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. That doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be a drop of rain after the clock strikes noon on Thursday, but I would certainly expect the morning commute has a much higher chance of being wet than the evening one.

The National Blend of Models has us in about an 80% chance of getting at least a quarter-inch of rain. That’s not enough to make up for the dry August, but it’d be the most in about three weeks — and if we get more than 0.31”, it’d be the most since July 27.

📊 Today’s almanac

Normal low/high: 61 / 82
Record low/high: 43 (1967) / 100 (1953)
Sunrise/set: 7:01 a.m. / 8:01 p.m.

👀 Looking back on August

Just like how July being quite warm was a no-brainer, August being quite dry is also very obvious.

Average high: 83.5 (0.6° below normal)
Average low: 62.6 (1.3° below normal)
Average temperature: 73.0 (1.0° below normal)
Rainfall: 0.61” (3.13” below normal) — 5th driest on record

The superlatives:

Warmest high: 92 on the 12th, 16th, and 19th
Coolest high: 72 on the 28th
Warmest low: 71 on the 12th, 13th, and 17th
Coolest low: 48 on the 27th

And a few other numbers…

Days of 90+ highs: 5
Days with 0.01”+ rainfall: 4

🌭 For the weather weenies

Understanding the lifecycle of a hailstone (NSF NCAR)
Keeping up with the Joneses: The interaction of neighboring supercells (Weather with a Twist)

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