⚠️ An Air Quality Alert is in place through 8 p.m. Ozone levels may approach or exceed levels that are unhealthy for sensitive groups, such as children, the elderly, and people with asthma and COPD.
💧 The latest Drought Monitor was released yesterday morning. All of Ohio is now in at least “abnormally dry” conditions, with 95% in at least moderate drought. Nearly 16% of Ohio is in severe drought, and a small part of eastern Ohio even deteriorated into extreme drought.
A large share of the state experienced its drought status degrade by two categories over the past three weeks. After checking this paper and based on some conversation on Bluesky, it appears this qualifies as a “flash drought” or “rapid onset drought.”
The 614cast
Today’s tl;dr
☀️ Mostly sunny, high in the upper 80s.
Forecast highlights
🪃 This weather keeps coming back
The forecast the next few days can be summed up as “MOTS”: more of the same.
We’ll have highs in the upper 80s today through Sunday. The weekend itself will probably have more clouds passing by in the afternoon, but it’ll still be a bit toasty for this time of year.
🎉 Feeling more optimistic about the rain
I’m still not making promises, but I’m feeling a little better about next week’s rain chances. Let’s hope that doesn’t jinx us.
It’s not a slam dunk, but forecast guidance has been hinting at the potential for next week’s system to get somewhat “cut off” from the main wind flow, which would take it longer to traverse the region. If so, then we might actually have a few days of occasional showers.
That little blip today is for the weak front slipping in from the north that could squeeze out a sprinkle, but that’s mainly to our north and wouldn’t be impactful anyway.
Chances begin coming up this weekend, but I think it’s not until Sunday night through Tuesday night that we have our best shot. That could shift or linger deeper into next weekend depending on how this next system kicks east.
One thing that should work in our favor is higher dew points. Yes, we’ll feel some mugginess as they rise past 60, but it’ll at least moisten up the atmosphere some.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center puts us in about a half-inch of rain through Thursday evening.
Something that will be a factor… will this be scattered showers where amounts will vary quite a bit depending on location, or will we manage to get some periods of more widespread, steady activity?
I hope I’ll be able to answer that to some degree on Monday. Whatever we get won’t come close to drought-busting (we’re approaching a five-inch deficit since August 1), but anything is useful.
📊 Today’s almanac
Normal low/high: 55 / 77
Record low/high: 40 (1929) / 97 (1895)
Sunrise/set: 7:17 a.m. / 7:33 p.m.
🌅 We don’t have equal day and night on Monday
Monday is the first day of fall — the fall equinox. “Equinox” means “equal night,” and it’s commonly thought that day and night are both 12 hours long that day across the globe. But it turns out, that’s not the case! There are two reasons for this:
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How we define sunrise and sunset.
It’s not when the center of the sun passes the horizon; it’s when the uppermost crest of the sun does that. So sunrise begins when the sun first crosses the horizon, while sunset isn’t until the sun has fully dropped below it.
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Atmospheric refraction.
The atmosphere bends light, which means that we see the upper part of the sun’s disk before it’s actually climbed above the horizon at sunrise and after it’s slipped below it at sunset. This gives us about six more minutes of daylight than we otherwise would have, according to EarthSky.
Columbus has 12 hours and eight minutes of daylight on Monday’s equinox. So, when do we have equal day and night?
That day is called the “equilux,” which means “equal light.” Here, the equilux is Thursday, September 25. Daylight lasts 12 hours (and 45 seconds) that day.
🌭 For the weather weenies
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Don’t water your lawn (at least not every day): Del-Co and Jefferson ask their customers (Columbus Dispatch)
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Chaos inside FEMA as death threats distract from hurricane response (Bloomberg)