The 614cast
Today’s tl;dr
🌤️ Filtered sunshine, high around 80.
Forecast highlights
👀 Warm and dry for now, but change is on the horizon
October is starting with a bunch of 80s — about double the monthly average.
But look at what happens the middle of next week!
Your eyes do not deceive you. There’s good agreement among the forecast model guidance that a cold front will push through sometime in the Tuesday–Wednesday timeframe.
That’s with the pattern change I mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter.
The large ridge of high pressure aloft that’s dominating the central and eastern U.S. will drift eastward over the next few days, then flatten toward the middle of next week.
It’s not a huge change or even a long-lasting one, but it’s at least a break from the warm and dry weather.
Well, maybe the dry weather. There’s not an astronomical chance of widespread rain, as shown by the National Blend of Models’ probability of getting at least 0.05” in a 12-hour period. Pinks are 30–40% chance, followed by 40–50% chance in the reddish-orange.
Even so, this model and others are enough to make me optimistic. We’ll also have southerly flow ahead of the cold front for a few days, which will allow some moisture to return.
Current indications favor sometime in the Tuesday–Wednesday period for possible rain. 🤞🤞🤞
📊 Today’s almanac
Normal low/high: 50 / 72
Record low/high: 32 (1974) / 94 (2019)
Sunrise/set: 7:29 a.m. / 7:12 p.m.
🍎 September review
Warm and dry… that sums up the month pretty well.
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Average high: 82.6 (4.8° above normal) — tie for 8th warmest on record
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Average low: 56.9 (0.4° above normal)
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Average temperature: 69.8 (2.6° above normal)
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Rainfall: 1.96” (1.18” below normal)
The superlatives:
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Warmest high: 89 on the 19th and 20th
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Coolest high: 72 on the 6th and 7th
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Warmest low: 68 on the 21st
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Coolest low: 46 on the 7th and 8th
And a few other numbers…
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Days of 80-degree highs: 22 — 3rd most on record
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Days with measurable rainfall: 6
🌭 For the weather weenies
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A U.S. government shutdown could affect weather forecasting, data (The Weather Network)
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Carrier wants to pair batteries with air conditioners to help the grid (Canary Media)
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As Amazon’s ‘flying rivers’ weaken with tree loss, scientists warn of worsening droughts (Associated Press)