The 614cast
Thursday’s tl;dr
🌥️ Partly to mostly cloudy, high in the lower 30s.
Forecast highlights
🌷 Spring preview
Well, I was premature or pessimistic when I said I didn’t see a bunch of 40s and 50s around the corner. That’s exactly what we have coming up as the pattern finally changes to support above-average temperatures.
Here’s the temperature anomaly map from the AI European model. Don’t worry about the little numbers, just the colors… especially the great deal of orange/red around here through the end of next week.
Here’s how I think that looks for forecast highs as of now.
It’s. About. Time.
We’re about a month away from the normal high reaching 50°, although hitting 50° (or even 60°, for that matter) in mid-February is not exceptional.
🌧️ Sunday’s the only rain chance
You’ll notice I didn’t say “precipitation” or “snow.” Of course, that shouldn’t surprise you given the mild temperatures.
The spring-feeling weather comes with a lack of any notable weather systems. The only thing in the next week is a system that passes to our south on Sunday, brushing us with a chance of light rain.
If we get anything, it’ll be more of a minor nuisance than anything. The higher amounts fall well to our south.
📊 Thursday’s almanac
Normal low/high: 24 / 40
Record low/high: -8 (1917) / 69 (1984)
Sunrise/set: 7:28 a.m. / 6:04 p.m.
🚗 Pothole season
With the snowmelt, we have some water sitting around. That will do some freezing and thawing over the next few days, and may contribute to some pothole development.
This diagram from the Virginia Department of Transportation does a good job of breaking down the process.
When water gets into the pavement, it can freeze, which makes it expand and push upward. That ice then melts, leaving open spaces in the pavement. As vehicles drive over the damaged pavement, their weight pushes down into the opening and breaks it up, creating a pothole.
🌭 For the weather weenies
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NOAA Research Valentine’s cards (NOAA Research/Instagram)
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Why water inside evergreen trees doesn’t freeze (NPR/Instagram)
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Cities with more snow than Denver this winter (Chris Bianchi/Bluesky)